The Physical Security Business 2016 to 2021

Access Control, Intruder Alarms & Video Surveillance

Published: Q4 2016
Date:
Q4 2016
Pages:
270
Charts & Tables:
27
Category:
Physical Security
Questions?
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This Report is the New 2016 Definitive Resource for Access Control, Intruder Alarms, Video Surveillance Market Research & Investment Analysis.

The total value of world production of physical security products at factory gate prices in 2016 was $28.44 billion, an increase of 4.5% on 2015. Over the last 5 years the market has grown by a compound annual growth rate of 8.2% showing a significant fall in growth over the last 2 years.

The developed markets of North America and Europe have continued to lose market share to Asia and particularly China and this is set to continue to the end of the decade.

This is bad news for western manufacturers of video surveillance products because they have failed to establish a solid business base and significant share in China, whilst two Chinese manufacturers have sales of more than $5 billion between them and now have the kind of scale that allows them to reduce prices to the levels that most western manufacturers can’t compete against.

We forecast a CAGR of 5.65% over the 5 year period from 2016 to 2021. Not particularly optimistic considering that the market managed to grow by a CAGR of 7.83% during an unstable period from the end of 2010 to today. But whilst growth in volume terms will be well over 10% there is little chance of sales revenues achieving much more than half of this whilst the major Chinese companies continue reducing their prices in order to boost volume.


Why Do You Need This Report?
  • This 2016 World Survey of the Physical Security Industry is our 8th edition of a comprehensive study providing detailed market sizing and analysis of the 3 major business sectors, Access Control, Intruder / Perimeter Protection and Video Surveillance. It is focused on the products business.
  • The report analyses the techno & commercial changes that are impacting the business and the role that merger and acquisition, investment and alliance is playing in changing the competitive landscape.
  • The report shows that the industry is entering a period of stable growth for the next 5 years, across most of the developed and developing regions of the world. The industry has become more resilient and robust and is in good shape to meet the full force of some very disruptive technologies that will start to change the supply structure and competitive landscape over the next 5 years.

This report reviews business models that could help to alleviate the problem of commoditisation in video surveillance. In the short term, we believe that the only solution is merger and acquisition between western-based companies to create sufficient scale to reduce manufacturing cost and thwart the policy of fighting on price alone.

As the report shows, acclimatising to a rapidly changing business environment, reshaped by fast moving technology and new competitors from outside the traditional business, will require clear vision of the present and future business opportunities and skillful implementation of appropriate strategies. We have set out in this report the facts, figures and information to substantiate how this can be achieved.


Within its 270 Pages and 27 Charts and Tables, The Report Sieves out all the Key Facts and Draws Conclusions, so you can Understand what is Shaping the Future of the Security Industry;
  • In 2015 M&A spend raised to $5.7 billion but this was still less than the $6.2 billion realized ten years previous. Nevertheless this was an important year for M&A because the world’s number 1 manufacturer of IP Network cameras, Axis Communications was acquired for $2.8 billion by Canon and the merger of Kaba Holdings and Dorma Holdings took place. These two mega deals accounted for more than 80% of the total value of acquisitions that year.
  • In September this year Johnson Control and Tyco International merged and created a $30 billion revenue company. Technically it is a merger with the new stock being proportionally based on the market valuation of each company at the time of the announcement. However in practice it is an acquisition with Johnson Controls taking over Tyco, a registered company in Ireland in what is called an inversion deal. Tyco is one of the world’s leading suppliers of Physical Security and Fire Safety equipment and its market valuation at the time of the announcement was $16.5 billion.
  • This is the biggest ever deal recorded since our records began in 2000; this has of course distorted the whole picture of M&A in 2016. The total value of deals in 2016 was $19.73 billion making it almost three and a half times larger than 2015. However the number of deals in 2016 was 27 compared with 38 in 2015.

Starting at only USD $1,500 this report provides valuable information into how Physical Security companies can develop their business through Merger, Acquisition and Alliance.


Who Should Buy This Report?

The information contained in this report will be of value to all those engaged in managing, operating and investing in physical security companies (and their advisors) around the world. In particular those wishing to acquire, merge, sell or find alliance partners will find it particularly useful.


Table of Contents
  • Preface
  • The Executive Summary
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Structure, Size & Shape of the Physical Security Business
    • 2.1 Structure of the Business
    • 2.2 Market Share
    • 2.3 Sizing & Comparing Access – Intruder – Video 2016
    • 2.4 World Distribution of Security Products by Major Regions
      • 2.4.1 The Status in 2016
      • 2.4.2 Market Forecast to 2021
      • 2.4.3 Market Size & Trends by Vertical Sector
      • 2.4.4 Market Size by Region & Penetration
    • 3. The Video Surveillance Market 2016 – 2021
      • 3.1 Market Size 2016 & Forecast to 2021
      • 3.2 Market Size Cameras
      • 3.3 Market Size Video Management Software Systems
      • 3.4 Identifying & Measuring the Performance of Leading Camera Suppliers
      • 3.5 Identifying & Measuring the Performance of Leading VMS Suppliers
      • 3.6 Channels of Distribution & their Restructuring
      • 3.7 Chinese Suppliers Set the Competitive Landscape
        • 3.7.1 Connecting Physical & Logical Security
        • 3.7.2 Sharing the Fast Growing Asia Market
      • 3.8 Major Demand Drivers for Video Surveillance
        • 3.8.1 IP Network Cameras
        • 3.8.2 TCO Metrics – Compression – Ethernet
        • 3.8.3 Integration within Physical Security & other BAS Services
        • 3.8.4 Demand for Analytics
      • 3.9 The Market for Video Surveillance as a Service (VSaaS) 2016
        • 3.9.1 Drivers & Road Blocks to VSaaS
        • 3.9.2 Suppliers & Operators of MVaaS & VSaaS
        • 3.9.3 Acquisitions in MVaaS – VSaaS – ACaaS
      • 3.10 Video Technology – IP Cameras – HD Analog CCTV – Thermal Cameras
        • 3.10.1 IP Network Cameras
        • 3.10.2 HDCCTV – Analogue – IP Network – Where is the Future?
        • 3.10.3 Thermal Cameras
      • 3.11 Body Worn Cameras
      • 3.12 Storage Recorders / Mobile Apps
        • 3.12.1 Storage
        • 3.12.2 Mobile Apps
      • 3.13 Video Management Software (VMS)
      • 3.14 Video Surveillance Analytics
      • 3.15 New Applications for Specialist Cameras
    • 4. The Access Control Market 2016 to 2021
      • 4.1 Market Size 2016 & Forecast to 2021
      • 4.2 Identifying Measuring the Performance of Leading Access Control Suppliers
      • 4.3 Channels of Distribution for Access Control Systems
      • 4.4 Major Demand Drivers for Access Control
        • 4.4.1 IP Network Systems
        • 4.4.2 Integration within Physical Security and other BAS Services
        • 4.4.3 Connecting Physical & Logical Security
        • 4.4.4 PACS – Identity Management & Biometrics
        • 4.4.5 Demand for Biometric Readers
        • 4.4.6 Personal Identity Verification Card (PIV Card)
        • 4.4.7 Near Field Communications (NFC) for Access Control
        • 4.4.8 Systems Integrators Preference to push Access Control
      • 4.5 Physical Identity and Access Management (PIAM)
      • 4.6 Access Control as a Service & Managed Access Control
        • 4.6.1 Growth Through Access Control as Service & Cloud Based Systems
    • 5. Intruder Alarms / Perimeter Protection Market 2016 to 2021
      • 5.1 Market Size 2015 & Forecast to 2021
      • 5.2 Demand Drivers
      • 5.3 Identifying & Measuring the Performance of Leading Suppliers
    • 6. Wireless Technology
      • 6.1 Wireless in the Video Surveillance Market
      • 6.2 Wireless in the Access Control Market
      • 6.3 Wireless in the Intruder Alarm Market
      • 6.4 “Wireless Will be Driven by IoT”
    • 7. Standards
      • 7.1 ONVIF
      • 7.2 ONVIF Moves into Access Control
      • 7.3 PSIA
      • 7.4 Cyber Security
    • 8. Software Markets in the Physical Security Business
      • 8.1 Physical Security & Information Management (PSIM)
      • 8.2 Physical Identity and Access Management (PIAM)
      • 8.3 Situational Awareness
    • 9. Business Opportunities Through Integration, IT Convergence & IoT
      • 9.1 Why Integration in all its Forms is Critical for Growth
      • 9.2 Growth Through Integration, IT Convergence within BAS Services
      • 9.3 Growth Through IoT & the Building Internet of Things (BIoT)
        • 9.3.1 The Impact of BIoT on Physical Security
      • 9.4 Business Models Focused on Product Specialization, Vertical & Commoditization
      • 9.5 Business Models Focused on New Verticals – Shared Intelligence & Total Systems
        • 9.5.1 New Industry Verticals
        • 9.5.2 Shared Services, Smart / Safe Cities & IoT
        • 9.5.3 Shared Intelligence in the Private Sector
        • 9.5.4 Total Solutions versus Product Manufacture
        • 9.5.5 Brand & Selling through the Internet
      • 9.6 Business Models to Counter Chinese Dominance in Video Surveillance
      • 9.7 Business Models Built Around Security as a Service & VSaaS
    • 10. M&A Performance by Sector – Valuation and Outlook 2000 to 2021
      • 10.1 M&A Performance 2000 – 2016
      • 10.2 M&A Performance in 2016
      • 10.3 M&A Outlook 2016 – 2021
      • 10.4 M&A Analyzed by Business Segment 2013 – 2016
      • 10.5 M&A Valuation – Exit Multiple Benchmarks
      • 10.6 The US Dominates M&A Activity in the Physical Security Industry
      • 10.7 Strategic Buys Dominate M&A Activity
        • 11. Identifying Potential Acquisition Targets & High Growth Sectors
          • 11.1 Potential Acquisition Targets
          • 11.2 Acquisition in High Growth Sectors
            • 11.2.1 The IP Video Surveillance Industry
            • 11.2.2 Security Management Software
            • 11.2.3 Video Surveillance as a Service (VSaaS)
            • 11.2.4 Access Control, Biometrics & Identity Authorization
            • 12. Investment & its Impact on the Security Industry
              • 12.1 The State of the Investment Business in the USA
              • 12.2 Impact on the Security Industry
              • 12.3 Investors in the Security Industry & Recipients
                • 13. The Role that Strategic Alliance Plays in the Security Business

Appendix
  • Table A 1.1 – The World’s Major Physical Security Companies 2016
  • Table A 1.2 – Acquisitions & Funding Announcements in 2014 to 2016
  • Table A 1.3 – Potential Acquisition Targets 2015 / 16

List of Charts and Figures
  • Fig 2.1 – Distribution of Sales by Major Grouping by Value 2016
  • Fig 2.2 – Distribution of Sales by Major Grouping by Number of Companies 2016
  • Fig 2.3 – Average Revenue for Group A, B, C, & D Companies
  • Fig 2.4 – World Sales of Security Products 2016
  • Fig 2.5 – World Distribution of Security Products by Major Regions 2016
  • Fig 2.6 – World Sales of Security Products 2008 to 2020
  • Fig 2.7 – Distribution of Security Systems by Building Type, 2008 compared with 2016
  • Fig 2.8 – Comparison of Physical Security Penetration by Major Region 2016
  • Fig 3.1 – World Sales of Video Surveillance Products 2016 to 2021
  • Fig 3.2 – World Sales of Video Surveillance Cameras 2016 to 2021
  • Fig 3.3 – World VMS Market for Video Surveillance 2013 to 2021
  • Fig 3.4 – Performance of Established Players / New Ventures / Challengers / Leaders in the Video Surveillance Camera Market 2016
  • Fig 3.5 – Performance of Established Players / New Ventures / Challengers / Leaders in the VMS Market 2016
  • Fig 3.6 – Distribution Channels of Video Surveillance 2016
  • Fig 4.1 – World Sales of Access Control Products 2013 to 2021
  • Fig 4.2 – Performance of Established Players / New Ventures / Challengers / Leaders in the Access Control Market 2016
  • Fig 4.3 – Model of Routes to Market for Access Control Systems 2015
  • Fig 5.1 – World Sales of Intruder Alarm Products 2013 to 2021
  • Fig 5.2 – Performance of Established Players / New Ventures / Challengers / Leaders in the Intruder Alarm Market 2016
  • Fig 10.1 – Security Deals Completed from 2000 to 2016
  • Fig 10.2 – Forecast of Deals 2017 to 2021
  • Fig 10.3 – Merger & Acquisition by Business Segment 2016
  • Fig 10.4 – Acquisition Valuation Benchmarks 2005 to 2016
  • Fig 13.1 – Strategic Alliance 2008 to 2016

Companies Mentioned Include Among Others
  • 3VR / ACTi / Aimetis / AgentVi / Allegion / Arecont Vision / Assa Abloy / Avigilon / Axis Communications / Axsys / Axxonsoft / Bosch / Brivo / Brickcom / BriefCam / BRS Labs / Canon / CIAS / Cisco / CSST / Dahua / Dallmeier / Dedicated Micros / Diebold / Digital Barriers / Dorma / Dropcam / DVTel / D-Link / Exacq / Eagle Eye Networks / Eaton / Flir / G4S / Gallagher / Genetec / Gunnebo / Geutebruck / Grandeye / HIKVision / Honeywell / Infinova / Ingersoll Rand / IDIS / Indigovision / IQinVision / Johnson Controls / Jablotron / Kaba Group / Keri Systems / Legic / MangoDSP / Mace / Magal / March Networks / Milestone Systems / Mirasys / Mobotix / Napco / Nedap / Nest / Nice Systems / OnSSI / Optex / Panasonic / Paxton / Pelco / Qognify / Prism Skylabs / Pivot3 / Primion / Risco Group / Safran / Salto Systems / Samsung Techwin / Schneider Electric / Senstar Stellar / SeeTec / SimonVoss / Siemens Building Technologies / Sony / Stanley / Suprema / Synectics / Tamron / TDSi / Tyco International / Ubiqity / Uniview / UTC / Vanderbilt / Verint / VideoInsight / Vivotek / Xtralis / Zicom / Zwipe
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